A 25-YEAR-OLD BET COMES DUE: HAS TECH DESTROYED SOCIETY?

• WHO IS KEVIN KELLY?

          WIRED's executive editor and resident techno-optimist. Kelly had asked Sale for an interview. But he planned an ambush...

• WHO IS PATRICK SALE?

          Author; adored Luddites. 

• THE CHIEF CONFLICT BETWEEN THE TWO MEN

          Kelly had just read an early copy of Sale's upcoming book, called Rebels Against the Future. It told the story of the 19th-century Luddites, a movement of workers opposed to the machinery of the Industrial Revolution. Before their rebellion was squashed and their leaders hanged, they literally destroyed some of the mechanized looms that they believed reduced them to cogs in a dehumanizing engine of mass production. In early 1995, Amazon was less than a year old, Apple was in the doldrums, Microsoft had yet to launch Windows 95, and almost no one had a mobile phone. But Sale, who for years had been churning out books complaining about modernity and urging a return to a subsistence economy, felt that computer technology would make life worse for humans. Kelly hated Sale's book. Sale's thesis insulted his sense of the world. in the final pages of his Luddite book, Sale had predicted society would collapse "within not more than a few decades." Kelly, who saw technology as an enriching force, believed the opposite-that society would flourish. Baiting his trap, Kelly asked just when Sale thought this might happen. Finally, he blurted out 2020. 

• WHAT WAS THE BET THEY MADE?

          Kelly bet Sale $1,000 that in the year 2020, we're not even close to the kind of disaster Sale describe. Sale barely had $1,000 in his bank account. But he figured that if he lost, a thousand bucks would be worth much less in 2020 anyway. He agreed. Kelly suggested they both send their checks for safekeeping to William Patrick, the editor who had handled both Sale's Luddite book and Kelly's recent tome on robots and artificial life; Sale agreed.

• HOW DID THE BET GO IN THE THREE AREAS MEASURED?

Economic collapse - Sale predicted flatly that the dollar and other accepted currencies would be worthless in 2020, but success of new currencies such as Bitcoin gives not much contest here. Round goes to Kelly. 

Global Environmental Disaster - we are locked down; California and Australia were on fire that year; floods; rising seas displacing populations; bugs and diseases heading north; ice caps melting and polar bears with no place to go; as well as the worst hurricane season and the warmest year on record. it's hard to dispute that we are at least 'close to' global environmental disaster. This one is Sale's. But it rises a question to me, that is true that these are global disasters, but are they related to technology in any way or is it human carelessness?

The War Between Rich and Poor - income equality hasn't been this bad since just before the Great Depression; Sale's book cites devastating statistics on income inequality and the frayed social fabric. If he had written his book after the pandemic, the picture would be even worse. But are the classes at war? Patrick also point to undeniable social unrest, such as semiautomatic weapons taken to the streets and massive protests against police abuses. He calls this round a toss-up, with an edge to Sale. But I come around to the same question, is it related to technology?

• DO I AGREE WITH THE VERDICT OF THE JUDGE WHO SETTLED THE BET? WHY OR WHY NOT?

          Sale does have a computer, as well as a printer, a land line, a stove, two televisions, and four radios. He draws the line at microwaves and smartphones. Despite believing that social media has "a visible deleterious effect," he has a public Facebook page. Judge William Patrick was not on Facebook and uses a simple cell phone, not a smartphone. More relevant to the bet, though, was the way Sale had rashly agreed to terms that made victory contingent on worst-case scenarios. Moreover, Sales' Collapse of 2020 book, which came out last January, includes an untimely concession. 

So let me just admit that I was wrong," he wrote. "But...not by much. And not totally.

          Yet shortly after the book appeared, global events seemed to tilt in Sale's favor. The pandemic's effect on physical and economic health, Donald Trump's destabilization of democracy, and even more extreme weather nudged civilisation closer to the precipice. Could it be that while we haven't retreated to caves and hovels, Sale's predictions have landed in the ballpark of reality? That's what Patrick had to determine. 

           Round by round, the outcome would seem to make it a draw. I agree with judges verdict that Kelly one. Some of Sales factors didn't seem related to technology at all and none of them were disasters. Also, he used electronic devices and had Facebook page, which looks like he goes against his beliefs. 

• WHAT OTHER AREAS SHOULD THE BET HAVE COVERED? IF YOU WERE MAKING A SIMILAR BET FOR THE NEXT 25 YEARS, WHAT AREAS WOULD YOU INCLUDE FOR JUDGMENT?

          I think area that should have been covered is benefits/disadvantages of technology in the workplace. Are people going to be replaced by technology/robots? If I were making a similar bet for the next 25 years, I would include how bulk of our energy will be renewable. It is gonna slow the climate warming and help the environment. Also, how life spans are going to continue to lengthen. 

• WHAT CHANGES DO YOU THINK THE NEXT 25 YEARS WILL BRING?

          I think the next 25 years there would not be any jobs left for human because everything is going to be replaced by robots.